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Check out this great electric scooter.




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Solar Cell Phone Charger Product Review

Need to recharge your mobile phone where there is no place to plug in your charger? The Innergy Power 22W Solar Binder offers a convenient, reliable way to use sunshine to charge your cell phone or PDA.


Talking on Sunshine





Solar Cell Phone Charger-Review Innergy Power 22W Solar Binder


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Big Oil Sends Holiday Greetings

I personally survey and post the prices of gasoline at four stations in Aptos, CA between 11 AM and noon, M-F. Maybe consumers are becoming numb to pain at the pump, but the recent increases rival those of last summmer when prices seemed to be the subject of every nightly news cast.

The stations monitored: Arco, Chevron, Safeway, Union 76

Average price for unleaded regular on November 20th = $2.47
Average price for unleaded regular on December 19th = $2.60

Average price for diesel on November 20th = $2.77
Average price for diesel on December 19th = $2.91

The ranges show the same trend.

November 20th minimum for unleaded regular = $2.39
December 19th minimum for unleaded regular = $2.51

November 20th maximum for unleaded regular = $2.53
December 19th maximum for unleaded regular = $2.68


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Greed and Global Warming #2

In some cases, greed may lead to a revision of how people think about climate change. Eventually it must of course as more energy is put into the atmosphere and oceans causing more extreme weather conditions, more severe hurricanes, droughts and floods. At some point in the decades to come, there will be an exodus inland. Insurance companies will see to it.

But right now businesses that need cold temperatures are feeling the heat.

A report by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development [December 14, 2006] heaped more bad news on [European] Alpine ski resorts, which are already struggling against the warmest weather in 1,300 years, according to Austrian climatologists, with flowers still blooming on some slopes and world ski tournaments being cancelled through lack of snow.

Banks in Switzerland are refusing to lend money to resorts below an altitude of 1,500 metres (nearly 5,000ft) and some small firms are closing, said Shardul Agrawala, who carried out the study.

Global warming could devastate European ski resorts within decades, forcing lower-altitude resorts to close and threatening winter sports which now attract up to 80 million tourists a year.

Link

Europeans generally seem more attuned to the threat posed by global warming (see Climate Change Action for excellent coverage).

Link

Europe is another region that is feeling the heat more than most. Europe seems to be skipping winter this year as flowers bloom on Alpine ski slopes and bears find their dens too warm and soggy to hibernate in. That is one reason why Britain and other EU countries display a growing sense of urgency as they lead global efforts to reduce carbon emission

Link

“According to the Met Office this Autumn has been the warmest ever in Scotland and the rest of the UK. This continues the trend for the first months of the year, making a record year very likely.”

Link

Ironically, the U.S. is experiencing cooler than normal temperatures.

According to environmental journalist, Kelpie Wilson, ”At this moment in time, the nation most responsible for climate change is the least affected by the consequences. Our cool weather is unfortunate, because it is prolonging the day of reckoning when Americans realize that we really do have to do something about climate change.”

Link

You can imagine that if this were happening in Vail or Aspen, we would be hearing a lot more about climate change. Enjoy the slopes while you can. Happy Holidays.

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Greed and Global Warming #1

Dear CEOs, offshore platform workers, gas station owners, refinery managers, coal miners, supertanker captains, tank truck drivers, wildcatters, riggers, drillers, geologists, accountants, power plant operators, brokers, venture capitalists, bankers, lobbyists and politicians:

This is the first of a series of commentaries about Greed and Global Warming. Since many of you connected to, employed by or dependent upon campaign contributions from fossil fuel industries may not agree with some of the ideas that I will present, I am beginning with an apology of sorts.

I think you are good people; you have good hearts; you are hard-working; you take care of your families; you love the outdoors and nature; and you love your country. The problem is that your activities are killing the planet

The petroleum and coal products that you provide and the industries that donate to your election campaign are largely responsible. Global warming is simply the result of too many people burning too much fossil fuel. This is not hypothetical; we can measure the results.

According to Reuters (October 20, 2006), "Greenland's low coastal regions lost 155 gigatons (41 cubic miles) of ice each year between 2003 and 2005 from excess melting and icebergs…"

And we are already seeing the effects on plant and animal life.

At least 70 species of frogs, mostly mountain-dwellers that had nowhere to go to escape the creeping heat, have gone extinct because of climate change, the analysis says. It also reports that between 100 and 200 other cold-dependent animal species, such as penguins and polar bears are in deep trouble.

"We are finally seeing species going extinct," said University of Texas biologist Camille Parmesan, author of the study. "Now we've got the evidence. It's here. It's real. This is not just biologists' intuition. It's what's happening."

Link

In previous posts (see list on right), I have written about tipping points and positive feedback loops. In summary, the more the polar regions warm now, the FASTER they will warm in the future because water absorbs more heat than ice and because the permafrost in the Arctic tundra, which locks in a vast carbon reservoir, is melting. This is releasing more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere which leads to more warming—a positive feedback loop.

The debate is not whether global warming is occurring, or if it is caused by humans, but what we can do about it. One thing we can do is to open our eyes to the reality that we are being routinely misled by multinational oil, gas and coal companies, power companies and automobile companies. Although the CEOs and managers are good people, a corporation is a near-immortal entity that is designed for one purpose only: making money for its shareholders. A corporation has no conscience, but it can act like it does for PR purposes.

We are also being misled by our government. The United States is the largest emitter of greenhouse gasses, but our government has consistently edited out, censored, cut, and redacted the speeches and reports of government scientists, like Jim Hansen of NASA, who have tried to sound warnings that we have an immense, and possibly insurmountable, problem that needs urgent attention.

"Further global warming of 1 °C defines a critical threshold. Beyond that we will likely see changes that make Earth a different planet than the one we know."

Link

Why is our government dragging its feet? In a recent speech Howard Zinn offered his considerable insight.

And if you know some history, you would understand something which is even more basic, perhaps, than the question of lying about this war or lying about this invasion, lying about this intervention, something more basic, if you knew some history: you would understand a sort of fundamental fact about society, and including our society, that the interests of the government and the interests of the people are not the same.

Link

Although Mr. Zinn was speaking about the warfare, he could just as well been addressing the war on the environment. We are routinely and consistently being misled by our government whose interest is primarily economic, not protecting the environment.

Mr. Inhofe [R. OK, Chairman of the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works] has a track record for using his power in committee to block legislation designed to cut the greenhouse gas emissions contributing to climate change. He famously said on one occasion that global warming was "the greatest hoax perpetrated on the American people".

During the Inhofe period in power, Congress has done little to curb the gas-guzzling SUVs (six miles a gallon), has flirted with the idea of drilling for oil in the Arctic and has allowed the Bush administration to put a wet blanket on to international efforts to fight global warming.

Link

It comes as no surprise that Oil and Gas and Electric Utilities are the top industries supporting Mr. Inhofe.

Link

To me, the solution is apparent. Our representatives must free themselves from the conflict of interest posed by corporate campaign contributions and become public rather than corporate servants.

In his new book, "War on the Middle Class," Lou Dobbs spells it out.

"The only way we'll ever see [corporate America's] power substantially diminished is through the complete public financing of all elections."

Changing Lose-Lose to Win-Win

Right now we face double jeopardy. Our reliance and dependence upon fossil fuels and the competition for dwindling reserves creates world tensions that will likely get worse as supplies diminish. In addition, our combustion of fossil fuels is putting the biosphere at risk.

We can turn this around by switching to green, renewable energy. Solar, wind and bio-fuels offer the promise of a peaceful, healthy home planet. But time is running out and our government and corporate leadership need to take the lead in curbing emissions and plan how to mitigate the coming impacts of climate change. Until then we are in an environmental and energy death spiral. Comments are welcome.

Sincerely,

Ron S. Nolan, Ph.D.
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Record of Campaign Contributions

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Global Warming: Tipping Points and Radical Solutions

Tipping Points

The atmosphere near the surface of the Earth has warmed about 1 degree in the 20^th century. This doesn’t seem like much, after all walking from a shady spot to a sun drenched spot can reflect a change of several degrees. So what’s the big deal? How can one degree make such a difference?

The reason is that there a vast areas in the polar and mountain regions in which the ice is just barely above the freezing point.. Permafrost is found on both land and continental shelves in the Arctic, and it comprises almost 24% of the Northern Hemisphere’s land, covering approximately 22.8 million square kilometers. Source

So it stands to reason that at the southern extremes of Siberia and Alaska that are warming the fastest are right at the tipping point. A small amount of warming melts the ice. The soil beneath the surface has been mostly frozen for about 10,000 years and over this period it has been accumulating partially decomposed plant and animal matter from the surface. As the permafrost melts the organic material is broken down by microorganisms which release more CO2 which causes more warming.

Radical Solutions

It is my belief that even if we stop every instance of fossil fuel combustion, cars, planes, power plants, the whole enchilada, that we have already reached the tipping point. Cutting back on fossil fuel use may slightly slow or diminish the impact. But how likely is that?

“Professor Paul Crutzen, who won a Nobel Prize in 1995 for his work on the hole in the ozone layer, believes that political attempts to limit man-made greenhouse gases are so pitiful that a radical contingency plan is needed.” [Steve Conner of the UK Guardian, July 31, 2006]

Crutzen has suggested increasing the albedo of the planet by seeding the atmosphere with sulfate particles. Other ideas like installing reflective films and increasing phytoplankton populations (that consume CO2) have also been proposed.

Here I propose other solutions that may be more controversial but which I believe should be given serious consideration nevertheless.

1. Ameliorate the impact of global warming by covering all parking structures, highways, office buildings, homes and condos with solar panels.

2. Pass legislation that all vehicles must be powered by electricity generated by solar power..

3. Immediately begin the planning and construction of levees around critical coastal cities, L.A., San Francisco, San Diego, New York, etc. I would also include selected critical habitats to serve as refugia for wildlife.

4. Fund research into the technology needed to seal off the lower stories of important buildings so that the upper stories can be occupied. Think of L.A. as the new Venice complete with floating docks, water shuttles and water limos.

5. Develop food crops adapted to the newly opened habitat in the poles and start cultivation as the polar regions warm sufficiently for farming.

6. Begin a mandatory relocation of coastal residents to newly constructed inland villages and cities.

7. Assist keystone species by transplanting them to newly opened habitats.

8. Develop floating desalination plants and pipelines to carry freshwater to the new developments in the new deserts forming in the interior.

9. Adopt strict population control methods.

10. Stop having senseless wars and start cooperating with other nations because the survival of the human race is at the tipping point.

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Permafrost Thawing: An Exclusive Interview with Ecologist, Dr. Edward Schuur, Univ. of Florida

In the July 16, 2006 edition of SCIENCE a research team in which Dr. Edward A. Schuur of the University of Florida participated, reported new findings about the reservoir of carbon stored in the permafrost in Siberia. The researchers specifically addressed loess soil, known as ”yedoma” in Siberia, a wind and water born dust frozen in permafrost in depths up to 50 m (~164’). The concentration of carbon in the deep yedoma deposits was much higher than expected compared to deep soils elsewhere.

SMO: Dr. Schuur, your paper estimates the varying reservoirs of carbon in gigatons (Gt)

oceans 40,000 Gt
soils 1,500 Gt (all soils globally, including tundra to a depth of 1 m (3.3’)
vegetation 650 Gt

Could you please explain how the mass of carbon is measured and estimated in the atmosphere and in the other pools?

DR. SCHUUR: Mass of carbon is the concentration times the volume. In the case of yedoma, we need to know the thickness of the yedoma (av = 25m), the bulk density (weight of dry soil per volume of soil, in other words kg of soil per cubic meter) and then the carbon concentration, which we can measure on an elemental analyzer. The elemental analyzer combusts the soil sample and measures the amount of carbon dioxide that is released upon combustion. We take soil samples from a range of geographic locations and vertically throughout the yedoma to describe a large area. A similar approach is used for ocean, atmosphere too.

SMO: Please elucidate on carbon reservoirs in the Arctic and how your team’s discovery fits in

DR. SCHUUR: There are two comparisons in our paper: the first comparison is between deep permafrost yedoma (~500gt) and the surface values that are typically used for northern ecosystems ~450gt. The latter value is focused on 1m depth. So, we are saying that there is another, more or less equivalent (large) amount stored deeper below.

The second comparison is an estimate carbon pools for >10,000 years ago when there were ice sheets at the last glacial maximum. The first comparison is the most relevant for current and future changes.

SMO: Most scientist believed that the organic material locked beneath the permafrost in Siberia, Canada and Alaska was in the form of partially decomposed peat, Sphagnum moss. But your study seems to indicate that the yedoma is also carbon repository.

a) How was this overlooked before?

b) Where did the yedoma come from? What plants or animals? When?

c) How was it sequestered in permafrost?

DR. SCHUUR: We are studying soils that are deeper than the traditional 1m depth that many soil studies focus on. Because carbon enters soil as plants and animals die and decompose, it is reasonable in most places to focus on the surface because that is where the biological activity is.

The reason that yedoma is different is that the surface of the soil was rising because in the glacial/interglacial periods, dust was falling and accumulating on the surface. Even though it was only mm to cm falling per year, over decades, this adds up to a lot of material, up to 53m (174’) thick in some places.

As the surface of the soil rose, carbon that was in the soil became trapped in permafrost (permanently frozen) before it had time to decompose fully. As a result you can see intact plant roots preserved deep in the frozen soil. This happened at a time where the ecosystem was steppe-tundra with lots of grasses and herbivores (think mammoth, bison, etc., other Pleistocene mega fauna)

This process resulted in carbon trapped much deeper than is expected in many places, and cut off from decomposition by microbes because it was frozen.

SMO: In regions at the southern extreme of continuous permafrost, how fast is it melting and what CO2 contributions to the atmosphere is this making today?

DR.SCHUUR: This is the $64,000 question. There is permafrost thawing (that is the word that permafrost scientists prefer rather than melting) occurring, and we are trying to estimate how fast it might be coming out. This paper is mostly about the size of the pool, and given how large it is, it is something that we should be worried about if it decomposes. Our lab experiments show that this old frozen carbon can be decomposed when thawed, now it is a matter of making projections into the future with the use of models.

SMO: If the melting is an accelerating positive feedback loop, can you make any estimates of how much faster the out gassing might be with a given temperature or atmospheric CO2 level increase?

DR. SCHUUR: Again this is the current and future research figuring out how much of a climate impact this pool will have using g/c/ms and future scenarios.

SMO: What are the most important actions that you believe should be taken to halt or retard the melting of the permafrost layer?

DR. SCHUUR: Permafrost stability (and preservation of carbon therein) is affected by climate change. Currently, human-caused changes in atmospheric greenhouse gases are likely to affect global climate, thus anything that we can do to reduce emissions to the atmosphere will help mitigate this problem.

SMO: There is a school of thought which believes that permafrost melting will result in the tundra becoming a carbon sink rather than a carbon source. The theory is that as the polar climate warms, plant communities currently limited by the cold temperatures will expand their range northward. And since plants are carbon sinks, the net effect of carbon and methane release from the melting permafrost in the tundra will be cancelled.

DR. SCHUUR: This is an important point and cannot be ignored. It depends on the rate of plant response and soil microbe response. In the yedoma soils there is far more total carbon than can be offset by plant growth, but then that depends on how extensively/fast the soil thaws. In general though there is so much carbon in yedoma down deep (~500gt), that if you consider the total land plant biomass (~650gt) worldwide that you can see that if all the yedoma thawed that there is no way to grow enough plants to offset.

SMO: Wildcard. Here you can ask your own question and answer it if you wish.

DR. SCHUUR: Here's a comment regarding surprises in climate change research. One aspect about this yedoma pool is that we are saying that this is 500 billion tons of carbon that was not really considered before. One extension of this is to think that if this surprise is out there, might there not be other surprises in the earth carbon cycle/climate system that can have a significant impact on our climate trajectory? This research makes me think that there are more surprises out there, and some we might only discover as they change in response to changing climate.

Ted Schuur, Ph.D.
Asst. Professor of Ecosystem Ecology
Department of Botany
University of Florida
Gainesville, FL, 32611-8526

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Permafrost Thawing: Temperate Tantrums

Here Comes the Sun

During this summer of searing heat waves, we don’t need to tell Americans that things are heating up. In a report issued this June by the prestigious National Academy of Sciences, “A panel of top climate scientists told lawmakers that Earth is heating up and that "human activities are responsible for much of the recent warming. Their 155-page report said average global surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere rose about 1 degree during the 20th century.-- Earth is the hottest it has been in at least 400 years, maybe more.”

In big brush strokes, the climate of our Earth has changed dramatically since it was formed. Our planet had experienced hotter periods and colder periods. The outcome is determined by the amount of solar energy input vs. the amount of solar energy reflected and heat radiated. See our article on Earth’s Radiation Budget for how this balance is established..

The Heat is On

Global warming is the observed increase in the average temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and oceans in recent decades. The Earth's average near-surface atmospheric temperature rose 0.6 ± 0.2 °Celsius (1.1 ± 0.4 °Fahrenheit) in the 20th century. The prevailing scientific opinion on climate change is that "most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities." Source

It is widely believed by many scientists that what seems to be a relatively small increase in sea temperature is negatively effecting coral reefs (coral bleaching) and is accentuating the severity of hurricanes. But the impacts on high latitudes are just now starting to get attention.

Polaritis

What may be until now a largely overlooked consequence of global warming is the effect of rising temperatures in the Arctic and Antarctic. As glaciers melt, sea level rises and a darker, more absorbent surface is exposed. Likewise, as sea ice melts, it loses the reflectivity of frozen snow and ice, therefore the darker water surface absorbs more solar energy.

But perhaps of even greater concern is the impact of warming on the high latitude tundras of Siberia, Alaska and Canada. The soil beneath the surface has been mostly frozen for about 10,000 years and over this period it has been accumulating partially decomposed plant and animal matter from the surface. We are not talking about an insignificant area.

Permafrost is found on both land and continental shelves in the Arctic, and it comprises almost 24% of the Northern Hemisphere’s land, covering approximately 22.8 million square kilometers.Source

What is significant is that a half degree change in average global temperature may make us sweat a little (or a lot) more in the temperate climes, at the southern edge of the permafrost regions, there is frozen subsurface permafrost soil that is just barely above freezing. In this case a half a degree means the difference between solid and liquid. And this difference in phases is huge. As the permafrost thaws it allows bacteria and other decomposers to get busy. The outcome is the release of carbon dioxide and methane (10 times more effect than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas).

This is what scientists mean when they talk about “tipping points”—a small change can initiate large scale, irreversible changes. What we have here is a positive feedback loop. The end products of the reaction (thawing and the release of carbon dioxide) increase atmospheric warming which stimulates more permafrost thawing. There is reason to believe that this may be an “accelerating” positive feedback loop in which the faster the permafrost melts, the faster the permafrost melts.

Now new research provides an unexpected surprise. Locked beneath the permafrost of northeastern Siberia, there is approximately 75 times the amount of carbon released every year through our burning of fossil fuels.

See the next article for an interview with Dr. Ted. Schurr of the University of Florida, a member of the team who made this startling discovery.

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Gallon Drunk MetroSantaCruz

Gallon Drunk

'Fuel efficiency" may not be a buzz-phrase for Venezuelans who guzzle gas at an astonishing 12 CENTS A GALLON. But for cost-conscious commuters in Santa Cruz, who are now paying upward of $3.30 a gallon (yes, that's more than it takes someone in Venezuela to fill their entire tank), every cent counts. Saving both money and the environment were what self-described commuter advocate DR. RON S. NOLAN had in mind three months ago when he co-founded SOLAR METRO ONLINE, which provides information on solar energy and transportation issues. The site's most popular section is its daily updates on gas prices at 22 stations in Aptos, Capitola, Soquel and SANTA CRUZ

Rest of the Article

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Solar Metro Online News Feed

Solar Metron posts are now syndicated as RSS news feeds. This nifty technology allow you to keep up with the latest headlines from new services and effortlessly receive the latest posts from your favorite blogs. It is a terrific way to stay in touch and save a ton of surfing time. For tecbnically inclined, IBM's webside has an excellent introduction to news feeds.

If you would need a news reader, I recommend bloglines It's advantages are that it allow you to access your feeds through your web browser, so you don't have to download a separate program....and it's free. You just sign up for a free account at www.bloglines.com. Once you login you can add a feed to Solar Metron by typing in http://www.solarmetro.com.

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Sorry Commuters, Hugo Chavez has us Surrounded!

While the Bush administration baffles the world by insulting and aggravating the leaders of China and Russia, it wants those very same leaders to get tough with Iran and support the imposition of UN economic sanctions.

Basically the neo-con strategy of surrounding Iran with US military bases while supporting and encouraging a new democratic freedom movement appears to be backfiring.

The notion that Iran is entitled to develop the very same nuclear power for Iran that Bush is advocating for the US resonates among those that believe in fair play. And in reality, it is not Iran that is surrounded but us commuters in the U.S. and it starts south of our border.

In an earlier commentary, I pointed out that even though we do not directly buy oil from Iran, it is a major OPEC player with the world’s third largest proven oil reserves producing 4.2 million barrels per day and exporting 2.7 million barrels per day.

Any disruption to this supply will have major repercussions and could result in much higher prices and rationing. The mere threat of an embargo could have the same effect. Iran is playing Europe against us by shifting oil transactions from US dollars to Euros in July, a move expected to further weaken the value of the US dollar.

Under the radar and missing from the headlines is Iraq’s growing relationship with Venezuela which could be as significant as their new friendships with China and Russia. because Venezuela is the fifth largest supplier
of oil to the US at 1.4 million barrels per day. Venezuela also owns and operates 14,000 Citgo gas stations in the US. One would think that the administration would be careful to cultivate a strong relationship with our neighbor in the south, but if they are, it surely not apparent or reported.

In fact, Hugo Chavez is extremely outspoken against US policy, routinely calling President Bush “Senor Peligroso” (Mr. Danger). Name calling aside, Chavez and newly elected Evo Morales of Bolivia are the figure heads of a new and growing populist movement in South America. Chavez is considered a hero to most Venezuelans because he has reorganized the nationally owned oil industry and is directing some of the profits to poor people. This anti-capitalist heresy is anathema to the Bush administratioo which allegedly supported a coup d’etat that temporarily removed Chavez from office in 2002.

Likewise Morales is not winning any points with the administration because he recently nationalized Bolivia’s natural gas industry, a major campaign promised filled.

Listening to the outrage of Congressional leaders about the “excessive” profits of oil companies makes one wonder if their constituents might consider the philosophical perspectives offered by Chavez and Morales in a more favorable light than the administration.

Treaties and Agreements

The administration lobbied hard for a free trade agreement with South America. Remember Bush’s trip in 2005 was met by anti-US demonstrations.

That initiative failed, but on April 29, 2006 Bolivia, Cuba and Venezuela entered into a similar arrangement between their countries, sans the US.

Havana, Cuba - Bolivia's new left-leaning president signed a pact with Cuba and Venezuela on Saturday that rejects U.S.-backed free trade and promises a socialist version of regional commerce and cooperation.

The Cuba-Venezuela deal - known by its Spanish acronym ALBA, also the word for dawn - provided a framework for the leaders to blast Washington's efforts to expand its free trade with Latin American countries.

But the agreements that I think are of great interest to US commuters are those between Iran and Venezuela.

Food

Caracas and Tehran have signed several agreements in the food sector ... some of the Iran Food Research & Production company's output is exported. Several agreements worth a total of over US$1 billion were signed between Iran and Venezuela in March by visiting Iranian President Mohammad Khatami and his Venezuelan counterpart Hugo Chavez.

Also, Iran and Venezuela have invested US$34 million in setting up a tractor manufacturing plant. Iran holds a 51% stake in the venture. Iranian and Venezuelan officials had signed the contract for establishing the plant in Tehran in December 2003 concurrent with an official visit to the Iranian capital city by Chavez.

Free Trade and Oil

LONDON, March 12 (IranMania) - Several agreements worth a total of over $1 bln were signed between Iran and Venezuela on Friday. The documents were signed by visiting Iranian President Mohammad Khatami and his Venezuelan counterpart Hugo Chavez, according to IRNA.

The agreements and memoranda of understanding (MoUs) inked by the two presidents cover various fields. Agreements on encouragement and support of investment, avoidance of double taxation, shipping and marine trade as well as MoUs on oil, gas and petrochemistry are among the signed documents. The agreements also cover cooperation between the two countries on geological and mines projects. In a separate ceremony on Friday, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez handed the highest official sign of his government to President Mohammad Khatami.

And in the future, Chavez might consider selling uranium to Iran.

The point is that Chavez is (perhaps justifiably) afraid that the US will overthrow him. He is building one of the largest militias in the world to oppose this threat.

Chavez frequently brings up the US threat during his weekly television show and at press conferences. Chavez often touts Venezuela’s riches and new global power. Last winter he offered major discounts on heating oil for the needy in US. Northeast. Recently he has extended the same offer to the impoverished living in the UK at the delight of the mayor of London and the consternation of Downing Street.

And for the first time. Chavez has specifically mentioned that he has had contact with other nations interested in receiving the exports the US depends upon while picking up the rhetoric specifically against George Bush.

Chavez said in Vienna yesterday that the 'final hours of the North American empire have arrived ... Now we have to say to the empire: "We're not afraid of you. You're a paper tiger."'

And today received a hero's welcome of sorts in London.

The question is what will Chavez do if economic sanctions are imposed upon Iran or if the administration chooses the military option? Cut us off? Make the supply sporadic and undependable? Raise the prices?. Commuters should be concerned that their ability to get to work and back may be irreversibly altered in the near future.

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GM SUV Sales Up!

As Bernie Schaeffer has pointed out in today's commentary, what everyone "knows" may be wildly off base. Didn't we think that Japanese cars were hurting America's SUV sales?

"Even as gas prices approach $3 a gallon, sales of GM's new SUV's are up 22% in the first quarter. What's more, J.D. Powers & Associates, Inc. says buyers are paying up to $7,000 more for the new Tahoes ($32,000 base) and Cadillac Escalades ($57,000) than they shelled out for the old models .... Trucks such as the Escalade, Tahoe and GMC Yukon not only have plush cabins, but they boost fuel economy close to 20 mpg, thanks to a system that shuts down four of the engine's eight cylinders while cruising. That beats all competitors (the Toyota Sequoia gets 16 mpg) and matches some midsize SUV's. As a result, GM's large SUV's are stealing buyers from other auto makers."
---(BusinessWeek - "General Motors is Still Living Large" - May 8, 2006 issue)

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Attacking Iran will Ruin Your Morning Commute!

We didn’t attack India, Pakistan or North Korea for breaking the rules and building their own nukes. But this administration is threatening an attack on Iran because they supposedly pose an imminent and dangerous threat to world peace.

And we all realize by now that our administration has proven itself dangerous and that it just might let loose an attack on Iranian enrichment facilities in pursuit of its neocon vision of strategic world domination. (Plus in their skewed thinking, it might divert attention from the “thousands of tactical errors” in Iraq). An attack on the widely dispersed nuclear facilities in Iran will likely kill thousands of civilians while solidifying worldwide resentment against America—and could possibly lead to WW III.

It will also play hell with the morning commute. I don’t have the time, inclinational or firepower to take on the political moral, social and legal consequences of a pre-emptive attack on Iran. My focus is on the 150,000 or so commuters heading over the hill everyday from Santa Cruz to Silicon Valley. Think of them as a metaphor for commuters everywhere.

What will happen when the gas stations run dry or are only open a few hours a day with prices rocketing above five bucks per gallon?—when you can get it! How about not being able to predict when you can fill up, calling stations and getting busy signals or a recording that says to check their website for the next shipment? What will happen to Santa Cruz commuters and the tech firms that they operate? What will happen to the US economy and our free transit-way of life?

And why do I think that the Air Force, Navy and Marines bombing the Hell of out Iran could lead to any of these doomsday outcomes?

First, Iran is the world’s fourth largest oil producer yielding about 3.75 million barrels of oil per day. Although we do not directly import Iranian crude because it is legally proscribed, Iranian exports of nearly 4 million barrels/day are a fairly sizeable chunk of the daily world crude oil consumption of the 76 million barrels/day.

Attacking Iran could reduce or eliminate their production entirely if 1) oil fields and facilities were damaged 2) the attacks resulted in internal turmoil within Iran 3) Iranian leaders decided to punish the US by embargo 4) Iran attacks oil tankers passing through the Straits of Hormuz 5) Iran attacks US warships using its new super-fast underwater missiles “flying boats” and top secret land to air missiles disrupting oil shipping. Any of these scenarios are possible.

Some of you may remember the Iranian oil embargo of 1973. I visited Honolulu at the time where the impacts were intensely felt and remember the hassle of planning a fill up. So an embargo might happen. After all is did once before. Iran might even launch a pre-emptive embargo just to give Americans a preview of the pain and suffering in store for commuters if we bomb(s) away.

Although Iran’s use of an embargo involves inherent internal risks because they are the only major oil exporter operating at a deficit, if sufficiently provoked or threatened they could be motivated to use their ace in the hole. Adding an unpredictability factor on when they cut and restore exports would be especially daunting to oil markets and traders.

The sad and frustrating part is that this could have all been avoided. Most of the world was behinds us after 9/11 and now most of the world is against us. Iran is emboldened by our botched occupation of Iraq. We not only eliminated Iran’s key enemies, Hussein and the Taliban, but we have unintentionally brought pro-Iranians to positions of leadership in Iraq.

Now Iran says let’s talk this out and the administration says no thanks but “all options are on the table—including military.”

The UN is hamstrung because of anti-US sentiment and the fact that Russian and China are sympathetic to Iran and will likely nix serious economic sanctions. Still Nobel Peace Prize winner General Mohammed ElBaradei persists in his efforts to negotiate a diplomatic solution and has asked both the US and Iran to tune down the rhetoric.

Does any of this sound familiar?

Next we throw thoughts about Hugo Chavez and Venezuela into the fray.


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Remember Gas Rationing? It Could be Coming Sooner than You Think!

I live about three blocks from HWY 1 in Aptos, Santa Cruz County, California. Starting about 6 am, there are between 100,000 and 200,000 daily commuters from the beaches of Santa Cruz County “over the hill” to Silicon Valley and San Jose. Depending upon the direction of the wind, the traffic noise can sometimes be right-on-top of you thunderous..

In California, the population in year 2003 totaled 36,363,502 individuals who owned 24 million registered cars and trucks. Each day Californians drive 825 million miles. This works out to 36 miles/day by the average driver and the combustion of 47 million gallons of fuel that generates 5.4 million pounds of pollutants daily.

Although experts disagree about the precise timing of when peak oil extraction will be reached, there is growing concern, driven by Royal Dutch Shell’s admission that it overstated reserves by 23%, that the peak limit could occur much sooner than oil companies have predicted in the past. Some say peak oil is imminent or will occur in the next few years.

In spite of the recognition of the eventuality of peak extraction, our dependency upon imported oil continues to increase.

The trend of increasing U.S. dependence on imported oil is expected to continue. Net imports, which accounted for 37 percent of total U.S. petroleum demand in 1980 and 53 percent in 2002, are expected to reach 70 percent in 2025. Petroleum demand is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent, from 20 million barrels per day in 2002 to 28 million barrels per day in 2025, led by the transportation sector, which is expected to account for 74 percent of petroleum demand in 2025.

"Transportation accounts for one third of all energy use and carbon emissions in the United States. The sector is 97 percent dependent on petroleum; cars and trucks consume two-thirds of all of the petroleum used in the country. In many urban areas, vehicles produce 50% or more of air pollution.”

Thanks to what I and many others consider an ill-conceived and botched public policy, I think that it is quite possible that the sounds of traffic on HWY 1 will be less annoying. We will be hearing waves breaking on the beach instead of SUVS enroute-- because most commuters will be stranded for lack of gas.

I base my concerns on the approach that the administration is taking with Iran and Iraq set within the context of ever increasing demands for petro fuel imports for China and India with a touch of Nigerian turmoil thrown into the pot.

Next I will share with you my thoughts about the growing relationship between Iran and Hugo Chavez and how one dumb move on our part and we will all end up riding bicycles to work.


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Global Warming: Be Worried, Be Very Worried

Jeffrey Kluger in his April 3, 2006 cover story in Time Magazine clearly and succinctly sounds the alarm about the immediacy of global warming (This link will take you to the article at Time’s website. If you are not a subscriber, you can still read the article by watching a short advertisement.)

Polar Ice Caps Are Melting Faster Than Ever... More And More Land Is Being Devastated By Drought... Rising Waters Are Drowning Low-Lying Communities... By Any Measure, Earth Is At ... The Tipping Point

Foot draggers and non-believers have routinely dsimissed global warming as something for future generations to deal with, the impacts would not be felt for decades or centuries. Kluger argues that we are already experiencing the impact of increased CO2 levels which are now at record levels now the hightest in 650,000 years.

“Never mind what you've heard about global warming as a slow-motion emergency that would take decades to play out. Suddenly and unexpectedly, the crisis is upon us.”

Kluger continues:

…glaciers, it turns out, can move with surprising speed, and so can nature. What few people reckoned on was that global climate systems are booby-trapped with tipping points and feedback loops, thresholds past which the slow creep of environmental decay gives way to sudden and self-perpetuating collapse.

He points out that Grennland ice is melting at a rate of 53 cubic miles per year, about 250 times the amount used by Los Angeles in a year. That sounds awfully immediate to me.


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Welcome!

Solar Metro Online offers a unique combination of commentary, articles, blogs, and resources in the fields of solar energy and transportation. Our goal is to help our readers prepare for a future dominated by rising oil prices. We will be your complete information source for new developments in photovoltaic systems for the home and business, electric and hybrid cars, and the environmental and economic impacts of air pollution and global warming.

Solar Metro Online will be up and running this spring. In the interim you can reach us via e-mail at nolan@solarmetro.com

Ron S. Nolan, Ph.D., Solar Metro, Aptos, California.


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