Attacking Iran will Ruin Your Morning Commute!

We didn’t attack India, Pakistan or North Korea for breaking the rules and building their own nukes. But this administration is threatening an attack on Iran because they supposedly pose an imminent and dangerous threat to world peace.

And we all realize by now that our administration has proven itself dangerous and that it just might let loose an attack on Iranian enrichment facilities in pursuit of its neocon vision of strategic world domination. (Plus in their skewed thinking, it might divert attention from the “thousands of tactical errors” in Iraq). An attack on the widely dispersed nuclear facilities in Iran will likely kill thousands of civilians while solidifying worldwide resentment against America—and could possibly lead to WW III.

It will also play hell with the morning commute. I don’t have the time, inclinational or firepower to take on the political moral, social and legal consequences of a pre-emptive attack on Iran. My focus is on the 150,000 or so commuters heading over the hill everyday from Santa Cruz to Silicon Valley. Think of them as a metaphor for commuters everywhere.

What will happen when the gas stations run dry or are only open a few hours a day with prices rocketing above five bucks per gallon?—when you can get it! How about not being able to predict when you can fill up, calling stations and getting busy signals or a recording that says to check their website for the next shipment? What will happen to Santa Cruz commuters and the tech firms that they operate? What will happen to the US economy and our free transit-way of life?

And why do I think that the Air Force, Navy and Marines bombing the Hell of out Iran could lead to any of these doomsday outcomes?

First, Iran is the world’s fourth largest oil producer yielding about 3.75 million barrels of oil per day. Although we do not directly import Iranian crude because it is legally proscribed, Iranian exports of nearly 4 million barrels/day are a fairly sizeable chunk of the daily world crude oil consumption of the 76 million barrels/day.

Attacking Iran could reduce or eliminate their production entirely if 1) oil fields and facilities were damaged 2) the attacks resulted in internal turmoil within Iran 3) Iranian leaders decided to punish the US by embargo 4) Iran attacks oil tankers passing through the Straits of Hormuz 5) Iran attacks US warships using its new super-fast underwater missiles “flying boats” and top secret land to air missiles disrupting oil shipping. Any of these scenarios are possible.

Some of you may remember the Iranian oil embargo of 1973. I visited Honolulu at the time where the impacts were intensely felt and remember the hassle of planning a fill up. So an embargo might happen. After all is did once before. Iran might even launch a pre-emptive embargo just to give Americans a preview of the pain and suffering in store for commuters if we bomb(s) away.

Although Iran’s use of an embargo involves inherent internal risks because they are the only major oil exporter operating at a deficit, if sufficiently provoked or threatened they could be motivated to use their ace in the hole. Adding an unpredictability factor on when they cut and restore exports would be especially daunting to oil markets and traders.

The sad and frustrating part is that this could have all been avoided. Most of the world was behinds us after 9/11 and now most of the world is against us. Iran is emboldened by our botched occupation of Iraq. We not only eliminated Iran’s key enemies, Hussein and the Taliban, but we have unintentionally brought pro-Iranians to positions of leadership in Iraq.

Now Iran says let’s talk this out and the administration says no thanks but “all options are on the table—including military.”

The UN is hamstrung because of anti-US sentiment and the fact that Russian and China are sympathetic to Iran and will likely nix serious economic sanctions. Still Nobel Peace Prize winner General Mohammed ElBaradei persists in his efforts to negotiate a diplomatic solution and has asked both the US and Iran to tune down the rhetoric.

Does any of this sound familiar?

Next we throw thoughts about Hugo Chavez and Venezuela into the fray.


Commentary Main Page
Solar Metro Online Home